The Cromford Report™ Monthly Market Review The Kennedy Group is pleased to provide this Mid-Month Market Report. The latest real estate trends and statistics are delivered each month in our Market Report as a complimentary service. Our business is built around the concept of educating and providing the personal service that our clients have come to depend upon. It is with this philosophy that we offer select data from the Cromford Report to our clients, associates and friends. It is intended to keep you informed on critical market trends that affect the Real Estate profession. Overview Sales rose 5.1% in May to 9,814. This is a very strong sales total because in May 2011 sales are not being boosted by the government tax credit that applied in 2010 for buyers of owner-occupied homes. This metric is positive news indicating that Buyers continue to take advantage of extraordinary housing affordability with sales over the 9,000 mark for the third month in a row.
SALES Year over Year Sales were up 8.1% over the May 2010 figure of 9,077. May’s 9,814 sales is the second highest sales figure since August of 2005.
New inventory declined again in May with 10,459 new listings added to the market. This represents a 3.8% decline from April’s figure of 10,874. May’s lower figure interrupts the wave pattern of new inventory started in December possibly signaling the beginning of a downward trend.
The downward total inventory trend line, started from a high in November of 45,353, continues in May to 31,661, 8.3% lower than April and the lowest figure in the past 24 months. It represents a 23.4% year over year decline from the May 2010 figure of 41,317. Total inventory represents the supply side of the market balance and continuing declines are a welcome sign.
Total market MSI continued to decline in May to 3.23, less than half of January’s 6.56 MSI. MSI less than 4 indicates a Seller’s market, which has been the case for the last three months. Marketwide MSI is seen as a barometer of overall market health and not repre-sentative of smaller market niches, which have their own individual MSIs.
NEW LIST PRICES
New median list price increased a meager 1% in May to $122,500, continuing the relatively flat pricing trend line begun in November. May’s figure is the sixth lowest median price figure of the decade. However, it does represent a 5% increase over the decade’s lowest median price of $117,000 set in January. May’s average list price increased 1.1% from April to $195,400. The average list price for May is the third lowest of the decade behind December’s $190,959 and April’s $193,168.
The median sale price for May is the lowest of the decade at $108,300, representing a 2.4% decline from April. Average sales price of $158,780 is the fourth lowest of the dec-ade, 1.5% below April’s average and 10.3% below May 2010’s average. Trend lines for both median and average sales price have remained relatively flat over the last six months, with median and average prices showing month-over-month fluctuations hover-ing in or just above the narrow 0-2% range since January. As other market metrics show improvement, pricing’s continued stagnation remains a disappointment. The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS which uses the prices of properties under contract in the MLS system to predict median and average pricing three months into the future. Its predictive accuracy decreases with time as more pending properties are added to the system. The median sales price predictions for June, July and August are $114,000, $106,000 and $97,000 respectively. If the August prediction is realized, it would be the first time in this decade that the median sales price dropped below $100,000. The August median predic-tion based on May figures would represent a 10.43% decline from May’s actual median. Many more pending properties though will be added to the pending pool before August, influencing the actual August median price. The average sales price predictions call for a 1.6% increase to $161,400 in June, a drop of 7% to $150,200 in July, followed by a 10% drop to $135,200 in August. Pricing shows few signs of recovery, although other metrics reported in STAT show positive gains which must occur before pricing can rebound: namely, decline in inventory (supply), rise in sales (demand), decline in foreclosures pending, and reduction in the months supply of inventory.
|
||
